Dry-van spot rates climbed 11% YoY in February — the first sustained recovery since 2022. Owner-operator credit performance should follow with a lag.
Dry-van spot rates posted 11% YoY growth in February 2026 — the first sustained recovery after the 2022–2024 freight recession. Reefer and flatbed posted similar gains. Capacity has been exiting through 2023–2025 as smaller carriers folded; demand has begun outpacing supply.
For trucking-specific lenders (equipment finance, factoring), the recovery should translate to improved credit performance with a 6–12 month lag. We've started tightening underwriting on new originations less, but loss provisions on the 2023–2024 vintage remain elevated.
Owner-operators are seeing the strongest relative recovery — they were hit hardest by 2023–2024 rates because of higher cost basis. Larger fleets benefit less from spot recovery but were better insulated during the trough.
Spot rates have stabilized but fuel volatility, insurance inflation, and concentration risk continue to keep most lender boxes restrictive on owner-operators.
Specialty contractor backlog data is at multi-year highs, but cost-of-goods inflation is squeezing gross margins to levels that warrant tighter underwriting.
Aggregate same-store sales across our restaurant origination cohort turned positive YoY in April for the first time since 2023, supporting a measured pricing recovery.
