Aggregate same-store sales across our restaurant origination cohort turned positive YoY in April for the first time since 2023, supporting a measured pricing recovery.
The restaurant credit cycle has been brutal since 2023 — elevated wage inflation, weak unit economics, and a sustained reduction in casual-dining frequency. April 2026 marks the first month of meaningfully positive same-store sales growth across our cohort.
We're starting to selectively re-open A-paper restaurant pricing. B and C paper remains tightly priced; default rates in restaurant remain 35–50% above the SMB average.
QSR and fast-casual lead the recovery. Full-service casual remains soft. Independent operators outperforming small franchisees in unit economics — the franchise fee load is challenging at current revenue levels.
Spot rates have stabilized but fuel volatility, insurance inflation, and concentration risk continue to keep most lender boxes restrictive on owner-operators.
Specialty contractor backlog data is at multi-year highs, but cost-of-goods inflation is squeezing gross margins to levels that warrant tighter underwriting.
Dry-van spot rates climbed 11% YoY in February — the first sustained recovery since 2022. Owner-operator credit performance should follow with a lag.
