Small Business Confidence: NFIB Index Hits 3-Year High
March 2026 NFIB optimism index reached 104.2 — the highest reading since early 2022 and the first time above the long-run average in 27 months.
By Summit Underwriting DeskNew York · London
Tuesday, June 16, 2026New York · LondonSOFR 5.32Prime 8.50
Capital Desk · OpenVol. VII · No. 26
$100K – $500M+ · 24–72h
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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index reached 104.2 in March 2026, crossing the long-run average (98.0) for the first time since late 2023. The index improvement was broad-based: expected sales, capex plans, hiring intent, and earnings trends all contributed positively.
Credit conditions are also improving. The 'credit harder to get' sub-index dropped to its lowest reading since 2022. Bank willingness has materially expanded.
Capex implications
Capex intent rose to 28% of operators planning capital expenditures in next 6 months — vs 22% in late 2024. Equipment financing demand should track this with a 2–4 month lag.
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