The 2024 MCA vintage was originated into peak default fears. Twelve months of seasoning data shows performance materially better than projections.
The 2024 MCA vintage was widely projected as the worst-performing in a decade — originated through peak factor rates, peak stacking, and a softening SMB economy. Twelve months of post-funding data tell a more nuanced story.
Default rates on the 2024 vintage are tracking 8–12% across A and B paper, vs initial projections of 15–18%. The relative outperformance reflects the post-2023 underwriting tightening and the structural deleveraging in the SMB segment.
Better-than-feared performance is opening risk budgets for 2026 origination. Funders are reauthorizing larger ticket sizes and modestly liberalizing eligibility. Pricing has compressed in response.
Average buy rates across A-paper merchants tightened 9 bps month-over-month as risk-on capital rotated back into short-duration revenue-based product.
Syndicated participation share of MCA originations crossed 38% in Q1 — driven by emerging-funder capital constraints and yield-hungry secondary buyers.
Renewal pricing for in-good-standing MCA borrowers has tightened materially in 2026. Repeat-customer files are seeing factor rates 8–15 bps below new-customer pricing.
