Roughly $1.5 trillion of US commercial real estate debt matures between 2026 and 2028. Refi gaps are creating one of the largest bridge and mezzanine opportunities since 2009.
The CRE debt maturity wall — roughly $1.5 trillion of loans coming due between 2026 and 2028 — is the dominant structural force in commercial property credit. Office, hotel, and Class B multifamily are bearing the brunt of refinancing stress as appraised values reset and bank lenders pull back from longer-duration debt.
For sponsors, the gap between exiting loan balances and conservative new senior proceeds is rarely under 15% and often above 30%. That gap is being filled by bridge debt, preferred equity, and mezzanine — at coupons of 9% to 13% on the bridge stack and 13% to 18% on mezz.
Industrial and grocery-anchored retail remain the most lendable property types — bank and life-co appetite is intact and pricing is competitive. Multifamily is bifurcating: high-quality core-plus pencils well; Class B value-add deals depend on bridge.
Office remains a triage market. Capital is available for repositioning sponsors with a clear leasing thesis and equity behind them; full lease-up risk is being priced punitively.
12 to 36 months interest-only, 65% to 70% LTV, SOFR + 450 to 700 bps, with 1 to 2 points origination. Most deals carry a take-out execution requirement at maturity.
Average buy rates across A-paper merchants tightened 9 bps month-over-month as risk-on capital rotated back into short-duration revenue-based product.
Twelve-month default rates on 2026 originations are tracking 80 bps below the 2023 vintage at the same seasoning point, with the largest improvement in services and B2B.
Spot rates have stabilized but fuel volatility, insurance inflation, and concentration risk continue to keep most lender boxes restrictive on owner-operators.
